Daily Stock Market Update
3rd Tuesday in October 2024: Wall street was set to opened higher following S&P 500’s worst session in a month. US oil dipped, halting their recent rally amid Middle East tensions, while 10 year treasury yield climbed higher, above 4%. After a weeklong holiday, China’s stock market rally faded due to absence of the new stimulus measures at a highly anticipated news conference. Before the holiday, Chinese government and central bank has introduced several economic-stimulant measures, but the stock market expected more.
3rd Monday in October 2024: Wall street shows no change on Monday morning. This will be a busy week of corporate earnings. The S&P500 and Dow are coming off record on Friday. Over the weekend, China presented a stimulus talk
2nd Friday in October 2024: The S&P 500 is poised for a muted open, but it’s on track for its 5th consecutive winning week despite a small dip on Thursday. The producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, came in lower than expectation for September, contrasting the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) released a day earlier. As earning season starts, investors will shift their attention from economic result to corporate earnings.
2nd Thursday in October 2024: The Street took a dip when the September inflation data and weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected. Despite this, both the S&P 500 and Dow ended Wednesday at record highs, posting strong gains for the week. Nasdaq is leading the charge this week, up nearly 1%. CPI index for September increased 0.2% MOM, 2.4% YOY, both figures are slightly above expectations. Jobless claims for the week ending 10/5 were 258,000, surpassing 230,000 estimate. Wholesale inflation figures will be out on Friday.
2nd Tuesday in October 2024: The S&P is set for a higher opening after its worst session in a month. US oil prices have declined, pausing its recent rally due to the Mideast tensions. The 10 year Treasure yield remains above 4%. After a weeklong holiday, China’s stock market rally faded as no new stimulus measures were announced. Prior to the break, the Chinese central bank and government had introduced several economy boosting measures, bu the market was expecting more.
1st Friday in October 2024: Market react positively and jumped following the stronger-than-expected September jobs report. Bond yield also rose. The early stock gains could help cut into weekly losses. The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 150,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This strong jobs report has increased the market expectations for a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s Nov Meeting. Oil prices have risen modestly and are up more than 8% over the past 5 sessions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Concerns are growing that Israel might respond to Iran’s missile attack by targeting Iranian oil infrastructure. The port strike (3-day) ended with a tentative labor deal and a contract extension to negotiate further details. This is good news for companies like COST, which had run out of many categories due to the strike.
1st Thursday in October 2024: Due to the Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, the stocks are expected to open lower. Also the markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the upcoming jobs report on Friday.
1st Wednesday in October 2024: The expected rise in dealmaking, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Fed, should boost the banking sectors’ revenue from M&A and IPOs. US M&A surged 37% to $1.3 T in the 1st 9 months of 2024 compared to last year. Global M&A transaction values have already reached $2T, surpassing 2023’s total 1.6T. The IPO market has also seen significant improvement, with IPOs in US raising $28B in the 1st 9 months, up 50% YOY. The anticipated rise in advisory and underwriting fees is a positive sign for investment banks. The context of the Fed’s rate cut and the historical highs of M&A and IPO activity during Covid provide a useful backdrop for understanding current trends. Fed’s decision on further rate cuts suggested a continued favorable environment for dealmaking. Analysts insights highlight the significant role of private equity in driving new deals, especially given their reliance on low interest rates and substantial available capital. The trend is expected to persist into 2025, further boosting M&A and IPOs.
There is a lot going on in the markets and the geopolitical landscape. The market is reacting to the heightened tension in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel. This has pushed oil and nature gas prices higher. However, there was some positive news with better-than-expected hiring at US company in September, according to ADP. Investors are now looking at Friday’s monthly employment report to gauge the potential impact on future Fed interest rate decisions. Saudi Arabia has indicated that oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members don’t adhere to production cuts. With Iran producing at full capacity, this raises questions about the geopolitical dynamics and potential responses from the US.
Chinese Tech Stocks vs. American Tech Giants: Chinese Tech stocks like JD, PDD and BABA have indeed been attracting significant investor interest recently. This shift in “hot money” can create headwinds for America Tech Giants like NVDA, APPL and AMZN as funds flow into these surging Chinese stocks. Patience with US tech might be wise, as market trends can shift back in their favor over time.
1st Monday in October 2024: Wall street is expected to open lower today. Despite September being historically the worst month, the S&P 500 had a positive September for the first time in 5 years, gaining 5.5% in 3rd Quarter and nearly 21% in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is not on a preset course for easing, suggested smaller rate moves after September’s 50-basis-point cut. The upcoming September employment report on Friday is the next significant event that could influence the Fed and the stock market. Union port workers on the East and Gulf Coasts went on strike after failing to reach a new labor contract by the deadline. This is the 1st strike by the international Longshoremen’s Association since 1977. Companiess like COST have been preparing for this work stoppage.
Last Thursday in September 2024: Tech stocks are surging, led by Micron’s impressive quarterly results and guidance. MU share jumped 18%. Additionally, Chinese stocks rallied due to sign of potential fiscal stimulus from Chinese government.
Last Wednesday in September 2024: S&P had a mute opening since yesterday’s record high. Market could be showing sign of overbought.
Market had a dynamic week! S&P 500 closed in record high indeed, driven by gains in the materials sector following China’s new stimulus measure. Tech, industrials, consumer discretionary, communication and real estate all performed well, contributing to positive momentum.